What if Joe Biden wins?
What can international students expect their future to look like, immigration-wise?
Aside from the pandemic, the biggest factor that will decide the fate of international students is the presidential election.
To get some answers, I talked to someone with extensive knowledge of the matter.
Felipe De La Hoz is an immigration reporter and the co-author of BORDER/LINES, a newsletter that presents immigration news in context, explaining everything you need to know. I touch on some aspects of the immigration system myself, but not exclusively and definitely not as in-depth as he does. I recommend signing up for his newsletter, for a better understanding of whatever comes next.
Without further ado, here are snippets from our conversation about what international students can expect after the election.
If Biden wins, would anything change for international students?
Actually, I think if Biden wins things could get significantly worse before they get any better. There’s a lag between the election and January, when he’d be taking office. I certainly think it’s possible that if the Trump administration loses, there’s gonna be all kinds of weirdness when they understand that their time at the helm is up. They can certainly try to do as much damage as possible until they are forced to leave.
Is that their strategy? Is there any strategy?
At this point, I expect Stephen Miller and that wing of ultra-nationalists in the White House to, you know, essentially try to dynamite the entire immigration system in a way that is kind of unfixable. Their ultimate purpose is to have no more immigration whatsoever, so maybe the best way to do that is to make it so that the pathways don’t exist anymore. Then, even if you have a new administration, it’s much harder to go back once they’ve destroyed the system.
When do you think international freshmen will be allowed entry into the country?
The thing about all of these pandemic-related provisions is nobody knows how long they’re gonna be in place. The student thing is one of a litany of things that have come down the pike.
You would think that people coming to the U.S. to learn wouldn’t be a problem.
Well, everyone is. To this administration, I mean. They tried to ban executives on visas too.
Does the ICE provision from last summer (which was later rescinded) still matter?
There was a rollback of the policy, but it wasn’t a total rollback. New students can’t obtain their visas necessarily, if they can’t guarantee that their schools are gonna be doing in-person classes. So, there’s that. None of these are laws, there’s no process, they’re all federal regulations. If we’re lucky, they’ll be put in the federal register and there will be a notice period, and a whole process — but if not, these things can be effective the next day.
For international students, if there’s any chance that their classes might be all online for the next semester, I think it would probably be wise to stay put. Just in case.
Right. On a personal note, I would love it if my brother could get to campus in January. Guess we’ll just have to wait and see. I’ve been getting questions from students about whether it’s a good idea to go back home for Christmas break or not. What would you say?
There’s nothing that would necessarily, from a regulatory perspective, keep students who already hold valid F1 visas from returning — as long as they have their I20s and such. I think one point of concern might be if they just recently got a visa. But new visas that are being issued, they won’t be issued if there’s an online-only course load, which is probably why your brother can’t come here right now. I would say that for people whose visas are expiring, perhaps it’s not a good idea. These regulations can change all the time, so it’s hard to say.
Right. Re-entry is not guaranteed right now.
Well, I try to get it across to people that fundamentally you can’t guarantee re-entry for anyone on a visa, ever. Unless they’re a U.S. citizen or permanent resident. Anything else is a temporary allowance. Visas can be canceled on the spot, and they don’t have to necessarily tell you what their reasoning is.
Let’s say Biden did win. What happens next year?
I would assume once he was inaugurated, things would start getting better. But things have gotten so messed up, that it’s not like he can flip a switch and everything will go back to the way it was before. A lot has to be undone in order for the system to be brought back to how it used to be, say, under the Obama years. But even then it wasn’t a bastion of fairness. It’s never been great, but it certainly was better.
If people are expecting that things will immediately get 100% better, know that that’s impossible. All these rules that have been put in place would have to be rolled back. It would be a slower process than people would hope for, but Biden definitely wants to be a foil to Trump, so he will want to take the opposite position. There’ll be pressure for him to start reversing all of the immigration policies.
And from a practical standpoint, what would that mean for international students?
For international students that would mean fewer delays with work authorization cards being issued, USCIS staff not being as aggressive, and fewer people getting denied their F1s.
Sounds pretty hopeful to me, no?
See you next week,
Ana
[Editor’s note, Nov 8: yayayayayayayyayayy!!!]